“China’s growth recovery and north Asia’s earnings rebound in 2024 remain our key investment themes and overweight areas,” Goldman Sachs’ strategists, led by Timothy Moe, wrote in a Saturday note.
This is CNBC's live blog covering Asia-Pacific markets.
Asia-Pacific markets were mixed on Monday, as investors assessed China's weekend press briefing and awaited a slew of economic data this week from the region.
Mainland China's CSI 300 rose 1.5% in choppy trading, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index fell 0.4%.
The Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index gained about 1%, while the Hang Seng Tech index dropped 1.6%.
China's Minister of Finance Lan Fo'an in a highly anticipated press briefing on Saturday hinted at more debt issuance amid efforts to shore up the economy, stating the government had a "rather large" space to increase deficit.
China's deflation worries deepened in September with consumer prices rising at their slowest pace in three months at 0.4% from a year earlier, while the producer price index fell at the fastest pace in six months, down 2.8%. Both metrics missed expectations of economists polled by Reuters, who estimated CPI to rise 0.6% and PPI to decline 2.5%.
China is set to release its trade data for September on Monday, with exports expected to rise 6%, a slower growth than 8.7% in August, while imports are estimated to grow 0.9%, compared to 0.5% in August.
Money Report
China watchers also look ahead to the week with a busy set of economic data, including China's third-quarter GDP, September industrial output growth, retail sales and unemployment rate.
Japan's market was closed for a holiday.
Australia's S&P/ASX 200 was up 0.44%.
South Korea's blue chip Kospi gained 1% while the small-cap Kosdaq index fell 0.23%.
Stateside, stock futures were little changed in overnight trading Sunday as investors waited to assess an upcoming batch of key corporate earnings.
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average traded near the flatline. The S&P 500 index futures were flat, while Nasdaq-100 futures dipped 0.1%.
— CNBC's Yun Li contributed to this report.
Don't expect 'knee jerk' stimulus measures from Beijing, says financial planner
Paul Gambles, co-founder of MBMG Group, told CNBC's "Street Signs Asia" that he expects more stimulus measures from China's central bank but that it may not be the response desired by markets.
"We think the PBOC has it under control and that that they will do a longer term, strategic, more drawn out policy response," Gambles said.
But it won't be the kind of "knee jerk" reaction that investors may be used to from Western policymakers, he said, adding that Beijing is focused on addressing problems in the economy, not financial markets.
Gambles believes that markets had overreacted to China's first raft of stimulus measures announced at the end of September.
— Dylan Butts
CNBC Pro: Is it time to invest in China? Two pros share their views
Chinese markets are back in the spotlight after a rough start to the week.
China's blue-chip CSI 300 index skyrocketed over 10% when it opened Tuesday amid expectations of further measures to boost the economy after the seven-day Golden Week break. The rally cooled off, however, after China's National Development and Reform Commission held off on announcing any new major stimulus plans, underwhelming investors.
As investors consider whether — and how — to invest in China, two experts share their views on the market and stocks they like right now.
CNBC Pro subscribers can read more here.
— Amala Balakrishner
China stocks remain cheap from a multi-year perspective, M&G Investment says
Speaking on CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia," Vikas Pershad, portfolio manager at M&G Investment said that his funds had allocated more capital to China market this year, than all the other major markets.
His view remains that "Chinese equities, on a multi-year view, remain cheap," even after the recent heightened volatility and weakening sentiment in the market.
Referring to the real estate sector he said, "that is not high on our Christmas wish list for values."
— Anniek Bao
China's finance ministry conference exceeded expectations, OCBC Bank says
China's finance ministry press conference on Saturday exceeded market expectations in terms of overall support, said Tommy Xie, managing director and head of Asia Macro Research at OCBC Bank, even though the announcements were short on details.
The press conference "signaled that China is getting serious about tackling deflation" and that is "precisely the message the market has been waiting for," Xie said in a research note on Monday.
In his projection, the additional debt issuance could reach as high as 3 trillion yuan in the near term while the overall fiscal stimulus could reach 10 trillion yuan spreading over the next few years, in what he called "the strongest debt restructuring measure" in recent years.
— Anniek Bao
Singapore third-quarter GDP growth tops expectations at 4.1%, preliminary data shows
SINGAPORE — Singapore's gross domestic product expanded an annualized 4.1% in the third quarter from a year ago, accelerating sharply from the 2.9% in the previous quarter, according to advance estimates from the Ministry of Trade and Industry on Monday.
Economists had expected annual expansion of 3.8% in the July-September period, according to Reuters.
On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, the country's GDP rose 2.1%, faster than the previous quarter's 0.4% growth.
— Anniek Bao
Goldman Sachs raises China GDP growth forecasts amid stimulus moves
Goldman Sachs raised its 2024 real GDP forecast for China to 4.9% from the previous 4.7%, as it evaluates the "more forceful and coordinated" stimulus policies coming out from the two high-level press conferences last week.
Chinese policymakers have "made a turn on cyclical policy management and increased their focus on the economy," it said in a research note on Oct. 13.
The company attributed the upward revision to the Ministry of Finance suggesting that 2.3 trillion yuan ($325.48 billion) of local government special bond funds will be used in the fourth quarter; and the National Development and Reform Commission stating it would pre-approve the 200 billion yuan of next year's projects by end-October.
"We estimate easing measures announced and suggested so far translate into 0.4 pp upside surprise to our previous projection," Goldman Sachs said, while lifting the country's 2025 real GDP growth forecast to 4.7% from 4.3%.
However, it noted its structural view on China's growth has not changed with persisting growth challenges, including deteriorating demographics, a multi-year debt deleveraging trend and global supply chain risks.
— Anniek Bao
China hints at increasing the deficit
China's Minister of Finance Lan Fo'an said in a highly anticipated press briefing Saturday that the central government has room to increase debt and the deficit, but noted such policies are still under discussion.
In the days leading up to the briefing, many investors and analysts had hoped that China was gearing up to unveil a major new stimulus package.
Hedge funds that recently flocked into Chinese stocks on stimulus hopes just did a 180 last week. Professional traders posted the largest single-day net selling of Chinese securities, both onshore and offshore, on Tuesday, according to Goldman Sachs' prime brokerage data.
— Yun Li, Evelyn Cheng
