Stock futures inched lower Monday evening after the Dow Jones Industrial Average registered its longest losing streak since 2018.
Futures tied to the Dow dipped 66 points, or about 0.1%. S&P 500 futures edged 0.1% lower, while Nasdaq-100 futures ticked down 0.1%.
The overnight moves followed a mixed session on Wall Street. The Dow dipped 0.25%, or nearly 111 points, falling for an eighth straight day for the first time since June 2018. The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.2% and hit a fresh record, while the S&P 500 edged up nearly 0.4%.
The gains for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq came without the cooperation of market bellwether Nvidia, which pulled back 1.7%. Shares of the chip giant are down more than 4% this month, even as the broader indexes and semiconductor names such as Broadcom have touched new highs. Alphabet, Apple and Tesla also hit all-time highs on Monday, while the S&P's tech and consumer discretionary sectors closed at records.
Traders await the Federal Reserve's next rate decision, slated at the conclusion of the central bank's final 2024 two-day policy meeting Wednesday. The gathering kicks off Tuesday.
Traders are pricing in a 95% chance of a quarter-point cut Wednesday, according to CME Group's Fed Watch tool. Insight into future policy moves from the meeting and Chair Jerome Powell's press conference following the meeting, however, remain key focal points for Wall Street.
As the end of 2024 approaches, investors also remain focused on prospect of a rally into year-end after another strong performance for stocks that has pushed all the major indexes to new highs.
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"The market does like to climb a wall of worry," CFRA's chief investment strategist Sam Stovall said Monday on CNBC's "Closing Bell: Overtime." "Historically, following an up year in the S&P 500, you want to let your winners ride."
Since 1990, he noted that the top three sectors in a given calendar year tend to outperform in the next year by about 300 basis points on average 75% of the time. But the potential of tariffs under President-elect Donald Trump's new administration could be a reason for some concern heading into 2025.
"If you are going to worry about something, it is that the tariffs are not just talk but truisms, and that we will actually be putting up barriers to trade," Stovall said. "If that is an actuality, I think that could be a very big problem."
German government failure and February snap election are headwinds for Eurozone stocks: Capital Economics
The failure of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's government in a parliamentary confidence vote and elections tentatiuvely set for Feb. 23 mean more challenges for euro-zone stocks markets, according to Capital Economics senior economist Hubert de Barochez.
The German DAX index has climbed 22% so far in 2024, but entitled a research report after the Bunestag vote, "Headwinds to euro-zone stock markets to blow harder."
"While equities in Germany have managed to ride out weak growth and political uncertainty this year, those in France have not. We suspect that they will all fare poorly next year, as those adverse conditions remain and a trade war takes a toll, the economist wrote.
The European Central Bank can't undertake the policies necessary to revive the European economy, Capital Economics said. "Individual governments are arguably the best placed to drive a turnaround in the economy," de Barochez wrote. "But most of them seem either unable or unwilling to do so, and in particular those in the two biggest economies: Germany and France."
— Scott Schnipper
Risk commentary may overshadow Fed dot plot this week, State Street strategist says
Wednesday's Fed decision will come with an updated summary of economic projections from FOMC members, including a new "dot plot" that projects the path of interest rate cuts.
However, the more interesting output from the meeting could be commentary about how the central bank views the risks of inflation and a potential rise in unemployment, said Cayla Seder, macro multi-asset strategist at State Street.
"The December SEP is interesting in that the soonest date is a whole year away. A lot can happen in a single year, so where I think we'll get a bit more color and a bit more clarity is actually in the text around the SEP as opposed to the dots themselves," Seder said.
One area of the dot plot that could be impactful is the final point, representing the terminal rate. A move higher could indicate that Fed officials think the so-called neutral interest rate is higher than they previously thought.
"We've consistently seen that rise. I think that's one thing that would hint at a hawkish cut," Seder added.
— Jesse Pound
Stock futures open little changed
Stock futures opened little changed Monday evening.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 45 points, or 0.1%. S&P 500 futures edged down 0.1%, while Nasdaq-100 futures hovered near the flatline
— Samantha Subin