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Dow futures surge 1,200 points as Trump closes in on presidential election win: Live updates

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange on Oct. 24, 2024.
Brendan McDermid | Reuters

Stocks were poised for a booming rally Wednesday as Donald Trump neared a win in the U.S. presidential election.

Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average soared 1,200 points, or about 2.9%. S&P 500 futures gained 2.4% and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 1.8%. The last time the blue-chip Dow jumped more than 1,000 points in a single day was in November 2022.

NBC News projected that Trump had won 266 electoral college votes, including the swing states of Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia, four electoral votes away from a projected win. The projected victory in key battleground state Pennsylvania marked a major step for Trump to clinch the White House. Wisconsin and Michigan are still too close to call. Follow CNBC's 2024 election live blog here.

Investments seen as beneficiaries under a Trump presidency erupted as the former president appeared set to claim victory. Tesla, whose CEO Elon Musk is a prominent backer of Trump, saw shares surge 13% in premarket trading. Bank shares got a boost with JPMorgan, Bank of America and Wells Fargo all jumping at least 6%. Futures for the small cap benchmark Russell 2000, also perceived as a beneficiary under Trump, jumped 5%.

Bitcoin, which could benefit from relaxed regulation, soared to an all-time high of $75,000. The dollar index climbed to its highest level since July on the belief that Trump's proposed tariffs against major U.S. trading partners would boost the greenback. The 10-year Treasury yield surged to around 4.43% on speculation Trump's proposed tax cuts and other spending plans would spark economic growth, but also widen the fiscal deficit and reignite inflation.

Shares of Trump Media & Technology Group, a social media company closely tied to the candidate, surged a whopping 50% in premarket trading.

In the race for Congress, NBC New projects that Republicans will win back the Senate. Leading up to election, Democrats were expected to take control of the House, but so far it was still up for grabs, leaving open the possibility of a so-called red sweep. A Republican wave could lead to more drastic spending changes or a big revamp of tax policy.

"It looks like a Trump presidential win but also a win for Republicans in House and Senate. If that happens, you're going to see the U.S. economy really taking off," Mark Mobius, Mobius Emerging Opportunities Fund chairman, told CNBC early Wednesday.

The stock market staged a broad rally Tuesday before the election results were in with the S&P 500 gaining 1.2%, bringing the benchmark's 2024 gains to more than 21%.

VIX falls as stock futures rally

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), often referred to as Wall Street's fear gauge, fell to 15.7 from 20.49 in the previous session, as traders adopted risk-on positions as Donald Trump came close to winning the presidential election.

Dow futures surged more than 1,100 points, or 2.7%.

— Fred Imbert

Private prison stocks gain on potential Trump win

Private prison stocks rallied in premarket trading Wednesday as former President Donald Trump edged closer to retaking the White House.

Florida-based GEO Group surged more than 31%, while CoreCivic rallied nearly 24%.

— Samantha Subin

So-called Trump trades soar in premarket trading as Trump nears victory

Stocks tied to a Donald Trump presidential election victory soared in premarket trading Wednesday as the former president neared a return to the White House.

Trump Media, which is majority owned by Trump himself, traded 50% higher. Tesla popped more than 12%.

Crypto stocks were also higher, as the prospect of a Trump victory is seen as bullish for the industry. Coinbase jumped 10.6%, while Robinhood advanced 8%.

Bank shares rose broadly. Wells Fargo and JPMorgan Chase gained 7% and 6.1%, respectively, while Citigroup popped 6.3%. The SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) was up 2.5%.

Regional banks, specifically, ripped higher as well, with the SPDR S&P Regional Bank ETF (KRE) climbing 8%. Regions Financial and Huntington Bancshares led the gains, rising 8.3% and 7%, respectively.

Solar stocks, meanwhile, fell sharply, as investors see a Trump presidency as detrimental to the sector. The Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) lost 7%. Sunnova shed 15%, and Sunrun dropped 13%.

— Fred Imbert

Asia-Pacific markets close mixed as results from the U.S. elections roll in

Asia-Pacific markets were mixed Wednesday as results from the U.S. elections rolled in and after Wall Street surged overnight.

Japan's Nikkei 225 led gains, rising 2.61% to 39,480.67, while the Topix rose 1.94% to 2,715.92 following the release of minutes from a September Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting.

South Korea's Kospi ended the day down 0.52% to end at 2,563.51, while the Kosdaq closed 1.13% lower at 743.31. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index was down 2.5% at 20,480 as of its final hour of trading. Mainland China's CSI 300 fell 0.5% to end at 4,024.28.

Australia's S&P/ASX 200 closed 0.83% higher at 8,199.5.

— Dylan Butts

Expect bond yields to stay choppy, trader says

Expect trading in bond yields to stay choppy, as the GOP secures a majority in the Senate and former President Donald Trump appears on track to return to the White House, AmeriVet Securities' Gregory Faranello said.

"The initial reaction makes sense, but we still need to see how policy unfolds," Faranello said. "The market's been in bear mode now for quite some time, and we're going to have to do a little bit of work, I think at these yield levels — to kind of sort out where we should be bigger picture."

He said bonds could see some buying with yields at current levels, but "I wouldn't rule out a continued move higher from here." He noted that the benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield was still below its 2024 high around 4.7%.

— Fred Imbert

Trump pledges to ‘help our country heal’ in speech to supporters

In a speech addressing his supporters, former president Donald Trump pledged to "help our country heal."

"We have a country that needs help, and it needs help very badly," he said. Trump also said that he would "fix our borders" in a second term.

— Sean Conlon

U.S. Steel shares pop on prospect of a Trump win

A tugboat pushes a barge near the United States Steel Corp. Clairton Coke Works facility in Clairton, Pennsylvania, US, on Monday, Sept. 9, 2024. 
Justin Merriman | Bloomberg | Getty Images
A tugboat pushes a barge near the United States Steel Corp. Clairton Coke Works facility in Clairton, Pennsylvania, US, on Monday, Sept. 9, 2024. 

U.S. Steel shares jumped 9% in overnight trading on the Robinhood brokerage platform. The American steel producer could potentially benefit from a Trump win if he enacted similar tariffs on steel imports as he did in 2018.

— Yun Li

Trump rally may be overextended, Larry Benedict says

Some of the Trump trades have struggled to make further gains in the last few hours, even as the Republican candidate continues to add more projected electoral college votes.

That could be a sign that some of those trades are running out of steam and hitting areas of resistance. Bitcoin fell back slightly after setting an all-time high. Equity futures and the dollar are also off their highs of the night.

This market action could mean that the Trump rally is reaching its limits, at least in the short term, said Larry Benedict of The Opportunistic Trader.

"I think the market is overextended, and again he's not even taking office until January [if he wins]," Benedict said.

"We could have a little bit more room to go to make an all-time high, but again I think the market's had a really good run," he added.

Lingering uncertainty around the election could also be keeping the rally somewhat in check in overnight trading, Benedict said.

— Jesse Pound

10-year Treasury yield can trade at 4.5% on Wednesday, investment strategy head says

The 10-year Treasury yield could sit around 4.5% on Wednesday if Donald Trump has the lead or is official declared the winner of the presidential race, according to Tim Urbanowicz, head of research and investment strategy at Innovator ETFs.

Urbanowicz said investors will expect the Republican candidate to place the economy on strong footing overall. But he said some of his proposed policies around tariffs and price cuts are "inflationary in nature," which can push the yield higher.

"Investors are clearly thinking that Trump's going to run away with this thing here," Urbanowicz told CNBC on Tuesday night.

The 10-year yield was last up around 13 basis points, trading at 4.418%.

— Alex Harring

NBC News projects Republicans will take Senate

Republicans are projected to take control of the Senate, according to NBC News, including flipping seats in Ohio and West Virginia.

— Jesse Pound

NBC News projects Trump victory in Georgia

Republican presidential nominee former U.S. President Donald Trump attends a campaign rally at McCamish Pavilion, in Atlanta, Georgia, U.S., October 28, 2024.
Brendan McDermid | Reuters
Republican presidential nominee former U.S. President Donald Trump attends a campaign rally at McCamish Pavilion, in Atlanta, Georgia, U.S., October 28, 2024.

Republican Donald Trump will win Georgia, NBC News projects. That is the second key swing state won by Trump, following North Carolina.

— Jesse Pound

Stock futures advance, but rising Treasury yields could have 'inverse impact,' strategist says

Stock futures surged Tuesday night, but a rise in Treasury yields could begin to hinder the equity advance at some point, one strategist said.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures gained more than 500 points, or 1.3%, while S&P 500 futures rose 1.3%. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield topped 4.45%.

"We are seeing Trump rally that is showing investors believe Trump will win. Bitcoin up over 7% to a new all time high. Futures rallying as is the 10-year [yield]," wrote Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets.

"That's a disconnect I don't like," Woods added. "The 10-year continues to climb higher and should have an inverse impact on the equity market at some point."

— Sarah Min

Senate Banking Chair Brown falls to GOP challenger

Senate Banking Committee Chair Sherrod Brown has lost his bid for re-election, dropping a hotly contested and expensive race against his Republican challenger.

The Ohio Democrat was down by nearly 5% with 88% of the vote counted in the state, according to NBC News, which called the race for businessman Bernie Moreno.

A senator since 2007, Brown was known for fiery, populist speeches and for grilling high-profile finance executives, as well as occasionally sparring with Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

—Jeff Cox

Trump wins North Carolina, NBC News projects

Republican Presidential candidate, former U.S. president, Donald Trump, takes the stage to offer remarks to a crowd during an event on August 21, 2024 in Asheboro, North Carolina at the North Carolina Aviation Museum and Hall of Fame.
Melissa Sue Gerrits | Getty Images
Republican Presidential candidate, former U.S. president, Donald Trump, takes the stage to offer remarks to a crowd during an event on August 21, 2024 in Asheboro, North Carolina at the North Carolina Aviation Museum and Hall of Fame.

Former President Donald Trump is projected to win North Carolina, per NBC News, marking the first battleground state called in a razor-thin election.

The news comes as overnight market trading signals a Trump victory. Bitcoin hit a record at $75,000, while stock futures ripped higher.

— Fred Imbert

Markets calling election for Trump, strategist says

Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, noted markets indicating a victory for former President Donald Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris.

"At this point right now, the market's called it [for Trump]. Whether that turns out to be true is still not decided. That will be the interesting thing to keep an eye on," Sosnick told CNBC. "But again, the markets have been ahead of the pollsters, the pundits, for some time."

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures soared more than 480 points, or 1.2%. Bitcoin, which is seen as benefiting from a Trump win, hit a record and was last at $74,148, up 6.7%. Treasury yields also climbed, with the benchmark 10-year note yield trading around 4.4%.

To be sure, several battleground states remain too close to call or too early to call, per NBC News.

— Fred Imbert

Election battleground over the economy tilts Trump's way

If Tuesday's presidential election in large part was a referendum on the economy, voters in many states showed they preferred the Donald Trump version.

Most polls, including NBC's, showed the economy at or near the top of priorities.

Trump boasted during the campaign of low inflation, strong growth and a vibrant labor market. Vice President Kamala Harris also touted growth and jobs, but had a harder time on the inflation issue, being that it hit a 40-year high during her time in office.

Multiple trades overnight Tuesday reflected voter expectations: higher bond yields from a pickup in macro growth, a stronger dollar due at least in some part to Trump's stated intention for higher tariffs, and positive for risk assets like stocks and bitcoin.

—Jeff Cox

'Not all sectors are equal' with Trump tax cuts set to expire, Josh Brown says

Investors should pay extra attention to their sector allocation heading into 2025, according to investor Josh Brown.

"The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is set to expire at the end of next year, and when you look at the S&P 500 and the rates at which corporations are taxed, not all sectors are equal," the CEO of Ritholtz Wealth Management told CNBC's "Your Money Your Vote" late Tuesday.

He noted that the effective tax rate is particularly high in the materials and industrials sectors.

— Sean Conlon

Euro falls to four-month low

The euro weakened 1.5% against the dollar to 1.0764, its lowest level since July 3.

The dollar index, which compares the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, advanced more than 1% to 104.785, its highest level since July 30.

— Hakyung Kim, Gina Francolla

Bitcoin surges to a new record of $75,000 as traders bet Trump has election edge

Omar Marques | Lightrocket | Getty Images

Bitcoin rallied Tuesday evening hitting an all-time high as investors bet former President Donald Trump was gaining an edge in the U.S. election.

The price of the flagship cryptocurrency touched a record $75,000 on the nose, according to Coin Metrics. Its gains increased as Trump took an early lead in the Electoral College, even though none of the major swing states were called yet by NBC News.

Exchange operator Coinbase rose 3% in after hours trading, while MicroStrategy, advanced 4%.

For more on bitcoin's price action on election night read our full story here.

— Tanaya Macheel

10-year Treasury yield pops

Treasury yields jumped in early trading Tuesday evening as traders saw former President Donald Trump having an edge in the election.

The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 16 basis points at 4.44%, hitting its highest level since July 2. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was up by 10 basis points to 4.30%. One basis point is equivalent to 0.01%. Yields and prices have an inverted relationship.

Even though none of the major swing states were called yet by NBC News, traders speculated the early returns were favoring Trump.

Bond yields could see a big pop in the event of a Trump win, and they could surge in a Republican sweep, where the party captures control of Congress and the White House. That is because Republicans may introduce tax cuts and steep tariffs, moves that could widen the fiscal deficit and reignite inflation.

"Bonds are selling off across the yield curve massively as the Trump trade gets applied again," wrote Byron Anderson, head of fixed income at Laffer Tengler Investments. "We see markets expecting a Trump victory and a real possibility of a Republican sweep."

— Yun Li

Investor anxiety tied to election can be put to rest, Tom Lee says

Fundstrat's Tom Lee is happy that Election Day is nearing its end.

The managing partner said there's underinvestment given "anxiety" around a "shock" to the market tied to the election. However, he said market participants can expect smooth waters regardless of who prevails in the presidential contest.

He also pointed to expectations of dovish commentary from the Federal Reserve during its policy meeting this week as another reason to be optimistic on the stock market.

— Alex Harring

Dollar index climbs 1%

Jose Luis Gonzalez | Reuters

The ICE U.S. Dollar Index rose about 1% on Tuesday night, indicating broad strength for the greenback in currency markets. The index is now trading near its recent highs from late October.

In general, the dollar is expected by Wall Street to rise if Former President Donald Trump wins the election, in part due to his tariff plans.

— Jesse Pound

Investors can turn focus to Fed if Congress appears split on election night

The market can "yawn" and then shift focus from the election to monetary policy if control of Congress appears split on Tuesday night, according to Peter Boockvar, Bleakley Financial Group's investing chief.

On Wednesday, investors' attention can turn to the Federal Reserve meeting this week if they know one party doesn't have control of both the executive and legislative branches, the CIO said. That meeting, he said, may end up being the more important event for markets this week.

Boockvar's comments come as investors wonder who will prevail in races across the country, as well as when they will actually be called.

Fed funds futures traders are pricing in a 98% likelihood that the central bank lowers interest rates at its gathering this week, according to CME FedWatch tool. That would follow the Fed's cut in September, which marked the first decrease to rates since 2020.

— Alex Harring

A new high in bitcoin would be a signal of a Trump victory rally, IDX Advisors CIO says

Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump gestures at the Bitcoin 2024 event in Nashville, Tennessee, U.S., July 27, 2024.
Kevin Wurm | Reuters
Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump gestures at the Bitcoin 2024 event in Nashville, Tennessee, U.S., July 27, 2024.

Several of the market moves on Tuesday night have come in trades that Wall Street pros had identified as tied to a Trump victory, but it's still too early to interpret those moves, said Ben McMillan, chief investment officer at IDX Advisors.

McMillan said that he was watching bitcoin most closely to gauge how traders were interpreting the election and a Trump victory would likely result in a new record high for the cryptocurrency.

"The level we're at now has been a strong resistance for bitcoin. It's kind of struggled since it set highs earlier this year. I think a new high — that would be meaningful to market participants," McMillan said.

Bitcoin is about 3% its all-time record, according to Coin Metrics.

— Jesse Pound

Treasury yields rising isn't a 'Trump trade,' Gary Cohn says

There are other reasons why Treasury yields have been shooting higher recently that don't have to do with the odds of former President Donald Trump going back to the White House, according to IBM Vice Chairman Gary Cohn.

"We are renormalizing the yield curve. We're gonna have more and more demand for longer-dated maturities. The U.S. has a big maturity wall in some respects. … We're gonna need to roll out our debt," Cohn, the former chief economic advisor to Trump, said Tuesday during a CNBC special.

"We've got an awful lot of corporate debt and real estate debt maturing in the next year or two. There's going to be demand on the yield curve, and we're going to go back to what I consider a normal positively shaped yield curve," he added.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield has soared more than 70 basis points to 4.3% since Sept. 16 — when the Fed cut rates by 50 basis points.

— Fred Imbert

The two most likeliest election outcomes are a 'Red Sweep' and a 'Blue Gridlock,' strategist says

A Republican sweep and a Blue Gridlock are the likeliest election outcomes, according to BCA Research.

"The most likely outcomes for the US elections are a 'Red Sweep' and a 'Blue Gridlock,'" Irene Tunkel, chief strategist at BCA Research, wrote on Tuesday. "The Republican sweep will bring about protectionist trade policy and pro-growth domestic policies. Harris's victory will result in gridlock and will likely support the status quo, precluding any drastic policy actions."

In the event of a Trump win, Tunkel said she would upgrade regional banks and industrials. In the case of a Harris victory, technology and retail will get upgrades, the strategist wrote.

— Sarah Min

Tuesday's stock trading action suggests a Trump win, investor says

Tuesday's stock trading action suggests a Trump win, while the bond market gave consideration to a Harris victory, according to Nancy Tengler, CEO at Laffer Tengler Investments.

"I am watching all the indicators," Tengler wrote. "[Tuesday's] market rally in stocks seemed indicative of a Trump victory. The bond market seemed to be hedging Harris according to our fixed income team."

Stocks during the regular session Tuesday rallied ahead of results from the U.S. presidential election, a sign the equity market is anticipating former President Donald Trump will win — an outcome investors expect will be positive for stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied more than 400 points, or 1%, and the S&P 500 advancing 1.2%.

On the other hand, the 10-year Treasury yield fell Tuesday, suggesting that a Harris win could continue to bring bond yields down from their highs. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield surged 50 basis points in October, a move that suggested a Trump win would lead to a rise in the federal deficit.

"The measurable indicators seem to favor Trump," Tengler added.

— Sarah Min

Bitcoin jumps to session high above $71,000

Thomas Trutschel | Photothek | Getty Images

Bitcoin jumped 5% Tuesday night as investors monitored the results of the U.S. presidential election.

The flagship cryptocurrency last changed hands at $71,199.30, according to Coin Metrics. It's now 3% off its all-time high, which it came in spitting distance of last week.

Shares of Coinbase and MicroStrategy gained 3% and 5%, respectively, in after hours trading.

— Tanaya Macheel

Trump Media shares soar more than 20% in after-hours trading

Shares of Trump Media surged more than 20% after the bell as traders digested the first batch of U.S. presidential election results. The stock was down slightly earlier in the day after the Truth Social parent unexpectedly released its third-quarter figures.

— Fred Imbert

Futures jump as results begin to roll in

Stock futures made a solid move higher around 7:30 p.m. ET as states on the east coast began to report early results. Dow futures are now up more than 300 points.

— Jesse Pound

Tesla shares gain during Tuesday's regular session

Tesla shares closed up 3.5% in the regular session Tuesday, with the electric vehicle maker considered a key beneficiary of the U.S. presidential election regardless of the outcome.

CEO Elon Musk has actively campaigned for former President Donald Trump, spending tens of millions of dollars in support of the presidential candidate. However, Trump doesn't support federal spending in favor of electric vehicles that have bolstered Tesla in recent years.

Harris is expected to be more favorable for environmental regulation. However, she has proposed raising taxes for the wealthy, hiking the long-term capital gains tax rate to 28% from 20% for those earning more than $1 million a year.

— Sarah Min

Japan's Nikkei 225 jumps to kick off Asia trading

The Nikkei 225 traded 0.7% higher as investors around the world looked to the U.S. presidential election race. Year to date, the Nikkei has gained more than 15%.

— Fred Imbert

Trump Media reports third-quarter loss in surprise election day filing

Sopa Images | Lightrocket | Getty Images

Truth Social parent company Trump Media and Technology Group said Tuesday that it lost $19.2 million during the third quarter.

The company reported just $1 million in revenue for the quarter. The stock trades under the ticker DJT and appears to move more as a proxy for the former president's political strength than based on the direction of the underlying business.

The quarterly report was not telegraphed to investors ahead of time. Shares were up more than 6% in after hours trading.

"This has been an extraordinary quarter for the Company," CEO Devin Nunes said in a statement. Trump Media is continuing to "explore additional possibilities for growth."

— Jesse Pound

Jamie Dimon: This is a 'time to respect and uphold our democratic process'

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon issued a statement on Tuesday that called for unity ahead of the U.S. presidential election results.

"Our country is now concluding one of the hardest fought and at times divisive elections in our recent history," Dimon said. "The American people are making their decision and soon it will be time for all of us to unite behind our President elect and all of our national leaders."

Dimon pressed for greater focus on economic and global issues while maintaining the democratic process during the election.

"We must begin the work of bringing our nation together and focusing on the pressing economic and global issues before us," his statement continued to read. "This is a time that requires all of us to find common ground and most importantly, a time to respect and uphold our democratic process. Our country is the envy of the world and if we can work together, we will ensure that it stays that way for generations to come."

— Pia Singh

Super Micro, Lumen Technologies fall after quarterly reports

Sopa Images | Lightrocket | Getty Images

Several technology stocks were under pressure in extended trading after reporting quarterly results.

  • Super Micro — Shares of the server maker dropped 17% after the company's unaudited sales results for its fiscal first quarter came in short of expectations, as did guidance for the December quarter. Super Micro also said it has no timetable for when it will release its annual results. The stock tanked last week after the resignation of its auditing firm, Ernst & Young.
  • Lumen Technologies — The tech stock slipped 4% after a third-quarter report that showed a wider-than-expected loss. Lumen said it had an adjusted loss of 13 cents per share during the three-month period, while analysts surveyed by LSEG were looking for a loss of 9 cents.
  • Microchip Technology — The semiconductor products stock fell more than 4% after the company's guidance for its fiscal third-quarter missed Wall Street expectations. Microchip said it expected adjusted earnings of 25 cents to 35 cents per share during its current quarter. Analysts surveyed by FactSet had penciled in 46 cents per share.

— Jesse Pound

A definitive answer on the makeup of Congress on election day could help lift stocks higher, says Blue Line Capital's Bill Baruch

As investors await results for which party will occupy the White House on Tuesday, an answer on the makeup of Congress could help lift stocks on Wednesday, according to Blue Line Capital founder and president Bill Baruch.

"I think right now as you look at it [with] a split Congress [and] if we get an answer there tonight, I expect the market to be higher tomorrow," Baruch told CNBC's "Halftime Report" on Tuesday.

— Brian Evans

Futures open slightly higher

Futures contracts for the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq 100 were all modestly higher when trading began at 6 p.m. in New York on election night.

— Jesse Pound

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