How Ginsburg's Death Could Reshape the Presidential Campaign

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., pledged to quickly bring to a vote whomever Trump nominates

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Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden said Friday that President Donald Trump should not immediately seek to fill the late Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s seat on the Supreme Court. “There is no doubt, let me be clear, that the voters should pick the president and the president should pick the justice for the Senate to consider,” he said.

A presidential campaign that was already tugging at the nation’s most searing divides has been jolted by the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, potentially reshaping the election at a moment when some Americans were beginning to cast ballots.

For months, the contest has largely centered on President Donald Trump's handling of the coronavirus, the biggest public health crisis in a century that has badly damaged his prospects for reelection as the U.S. death toll nears 200,000 people.

But in a flash, Ginsburg's death on Friday added new weight to the election, with the potential that Trump or his Democratic challenger, Joe Biden, could pick a successor who could decide abortion access, environmental regulations and the power of the presidency for a generation.

With early voting underway in five states and Election Day just over six weeks away, Democrats and Republicans were largely unified late Friday in praising Ginsburg as a leading legal thinker and advocate for women's rights. But strategists in both parties also seized on the moment to find an advantage.

Facing the prospect of losing both the White House and the Senate, some Republicans viewed the Supreme Court vacancy as one of the few avenues remaining for Trump to galvanize supporters beyond his most loyal core of supporters, particularly suburban women who have abandoned the GOP in recent years.

“It’s hard to see how this doesn’t help Trump politically,” said veteran Republican strategist Alex Conant. “Biden wants this election to be a referendum on Trump. Now it’s going to be a referendum on whoever he nominates to the Supreme Court.”

Multiple Republicans close to the White House believe that Trump will likely nominate a woman, who could serve as a counterweight of sorts to Biden’s choice of running mate Kamala Harris, who would be the first woman to serve as vice president.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., pledged to quickly bring to a vote whomever Trump nominates. But he faces potential division within his own ranks, including from Sens. Mitt Romney of Utah, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Susan Collins of Maine and Cory Gardner of Colorado. Collins and Gardner are in particularly tight races for reelection this fall.

That's fueling optimism among Democrats that the vacancy could drive home the significance of the election to their base.

President Donald Trump was asked about Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death after a campaign rally in Minnesota. “She just died? Wow,” he said. “She led an amazing life. What else can you say? Amazing woman whether you agreed or not.”

“The implications for Senate races could be profound,” said Democratic strategist Bill Burton.

“The presidential race will see some immediate churn as activists on both sides will be newly energized,” he continued. “The persistent question will be whether huge protests around the Capitol and the country will inflame such vigorous energy that it leads to awful clashes.”

Biden, who has already pledged to appoint the first Black woman to the Supreme Court, told reporters late Friday that “voters should pick the president and the president should pick the justice to consider.”

Democrats are enraged by McConnell’s pledge to move forward, especially after he blocked President Barack Obama from appointing a justice to replace Antonin Scalia nine months before the 2016 election. That decision cast a long political shadow, prompting Pete Buttigieg, the former South Bend, Indiana, mayor who mounted a spirited bid for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination, to make expansion of the Supreme Court a centerpiece of his campaign. Biden rejected the idea.

Some Democrats privately concede that the Supreme Court vacancy could shift attention away from the virus, which has been a central element of Biden's campaign.

Trump took the unprecedented step in 2016 of releasing a list of Supreme Court picks before he was elected, a move that was credited with unifying skeptical conservative voters to unite behind him. Republicans also believe that the high-profile debate over Trump's last Supreme Court pick, Brett Kavanaugh, helped the GOP retain the Senate during the 2018 midterms, when the party lost control of the House.

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Portrait of Ruth Ginsburg, filed 1977.
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US Senator Joseph Biden (L), chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, whispers on July 20, 1993 to judge Ruth Bader Ginsburg shortly before his committee began Ginsburg’s confirmation hearing for the position of associate justice of the US Supreme Court.
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The only two female Justices of the U.S. Supreme Court, Sandra Day O’Connor and Ruth Bader Ginsburg, pose for a portrait in Statuary Hall March 28, 2001 surrounded by statues of men at the U.S. Capitol Building in Washington, D.C. The two Justices were preparing to address a meeting of the Congressional Women’s Caucus.
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Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg with husband Martin Ginsburg.
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Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg reads to a group of children from a story book at the 10th Anniversary of TV’s “Reading Rainbow”.
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Sentimental Pres. Bill Clinton applauding Judge Ruth Bader Ginsburg after Supreme Court nominee’s moving acceptance speech, in WH Rose Garden.
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U.S. Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg sits in her chambers at the Supreme Court August 7, 2002 in Washington, DC. Ginsburg is the second woman to be appointed to the high court.
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In this March 3, 2006, file photo, Associate Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg joins the members of the Supreme Court for photos during a group portrait session at the Supreme Court Building in Washington.
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Members of the US Supreme Court pose for a group photograph at the Supreme Court building on September 29, 2009 in Washington, DC. Front row (L-R): Associate Justice Anthony M. Kennedy, Associate Justice John Paul Stevens, Chief Justice John G. Roberts, Associate Justice Antonin Scalia, and Associate Justice Clarence Thomas. Back Row (L-R), Associate Justice Samuel Alito Jr., Associate Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Associate Justice Stephen Breyer, and Associate Justice Sonia Sotomayor.
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U.S President Barack Obama (C) greets (L-R) Supreme Court Justices Anthony Kennedy, Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Stephen Breyer before the State of the Union address on Capitol Hill on January 25, 2011 in Washington, DC.
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Supreme Court Justices Elena Kagan, left, Samuel Anthony Alito, Jr., Ruth Bader Ginsburg, and Anthony M. Kennedy react during prayers at a private ceremony in the Great Hall of the Supreme Court where late Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia lies in repose on February 19, 2016 in Washington, DC.
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Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg holds a copy of her new book ‘My Own Words’ after An Historic Evening with Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg at the Temple Emanu-El Skirball Center on September 21, 2016 in New York City.
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U.S. Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg (R) waves to students as she arrives at a lecture September 26, 2018 at Georgetown University Law Center in Washington, DC. Justice Ginsburg discussed Supreme Court cases from the 2017-2018 term at the lecture.
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Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg speaks onstage at the Fourth Annual Berggruen Prize Gala celebrating 2019 Laureate Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg In New York City on December 16, 2019 in New York City.
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U.S. Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg participates in a discussion at the Georgetown University Law Center on February 10, 2020 in Washington, DC. Justice Ginsburg and U.S. Appeals Court Judge McKeown discussed the 19th Amendment which guaranteed women the right to vote which was passed 100 years ago.
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Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg greets participants at an annual Women’s History Month reception hosted by Pelosi in the U.S. capitol building on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C.

The president, seeking to build the same type of energy that surrounded his 2016 bid, released another list of potential Supreme Court nominees last week.

But some Democrats said the political environment is already overheated, with partisan divides over everything from wearing a mask to curb the pandemic to addressing climate change. Ginsburg's death, they say, may not change that.

“It’s already pretty ugly out there,” said Megan Jones, a Democratic strategist who worked for former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. “I do not know how this does not become a fight of epic proportions.”

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Associated Press writers Michelle Price in Las Vegas, Nicholas Riccardi in Denver and Bill Barrow in Atlanta contributed to this report.

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