Mike Felger and Michael Holley are back with another Heat Check! They discuss whether or not they believe the Red Sox will make a serious offer to free agent Juan Soto after reports that he is meeting with the team this week.
Rarely has there been a more straightforward free agency case than Juan Soto. The Red Sox can highlight David Ortiz, extol the history of Fenway Park, and trace Soto's hitting lineage back to Ted Williams himself, but let's be real.
He's signing with whoever pays him the most money.
This creates a legitimate opportunity for the Red Sox, as long as they don't get lost in the weeds. Selling Soto on being the centerpiece of their up-and-coming rebuild is a perfectly fine support strategy. But it can't be their main strategy.
Their primary pitch must start with a dollar sign and end with a Cheerios bowl full of zeroes, because agent Scott Boras isn't in the habit of leaving money on the table. The Red Sox are perfectly positioned to consummate the deal, if only they're willing to throw caution aside, like they used to do on the regular.
Even the richest teams have budgets, and the Red Sox have neglected their roster for so long, they now have as much money to spend as anyone (at least $70 million before they reach the first luxury tax threshold, which CEO Sam Kennedy recently told The Boston Globe they'd be willing to surpass). The mostly unwatchable baseball they've foisted upon us since the pandemic has perversely put them in the driver's seat, if only they'll hit the gas, because the market could actually be breaking their way.
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The Yankees want to reunite with Soto, who delivered the best season of his career in pinstripes, but Hal Steinbrenner must've inherited his mom's DNA, because he has never spent as recklessly as his late father.
The Yankees instead have made targeted strikes on his watch, spending more than $300 million each on Gerrit Cole and Aaron Judge -- with a Cy Young and MVP to show for their largesse -- but they no longer exude the whatever-it-takes arrogance that made them the Evil Empire. It is possible to present Soto an offer they won't match.
Similarly, the Mets have given owner Steve Cohen a crash course in the realities of spending sprees. They rarely work, hamstring a franchise if there's no plan attached, and can't occur annually. The Mets have about $180 million coming off their books this winter, so there's room to spend on a team that just rampaged its way to the National League Championship Series.
But it's unclear if Cohen wants to commit to $350 million payrolls in perpetuity, and the 2023 deals that jettisoned Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, as well as last winter's modest acquisitions, signaled a slight retreat. Disregard Cohen's deep pockets at your own peril, of course, but it wouldn't be a surprise if he approaches this offseason just a touch more cautiously.
Then there are the Dodgers. They tend to hover in these situations before striking, but even they have their limits. They just signed two-time Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell for $182 million, making it even harder to imagine squeezing another $600 million onto the payroll for Soto, especially if he declines to defer money like $700 million man Shohei Ohtani.
The Dodgers can never be counted out, but there are already five players on the roster due at least $27 million next year.
That leaves the Blue Jays and their exchange rates and international flights and constant bridesmaid status. They tried to blow away Ohtani last year without success, and one suspects they'll meet a similar fate in the Soto sweepstakes.
So that brings us back to the Red Sox and their unique advantages this winter. The Yankees have a budget. The Mets have reached an inflection point. The Dodgers may be tapped. The Blue Jays are in Canada. The Red Sox have an opportunity to flush their fiscal approach of the last five years -- aiming to win low-stakes negotiations by a dollar and ignoring the top of the market entirely -- and go get a player the old-fashioned way.
It doesn't require Pedro Martinez delivering a bouquet of roses, a tour of the Public Gardens, or an aerial Fenway Park hype video. Just offer Soto so much that you leave him no choice.
