Brian Hoyer is back on the Gameplan to gives his Keys to Victory for the Patriots in Week 13.
FOXBORO -- There should be two primary objectives for the Patriots for the remainder of the 2024 season.
No. 1? Establish something in the way of a culture, a standard and an identity in Jerod Mayo's first year as head coach. Still plenty of work to do on that front, it seemed, after a Week 12 thrashing in Miami that featured a lack of focus and communication.
No. 2? Find out what the young players on the roster can do. In the thick of a rebuild, there is nothing more valuable than talented, cost-controlled players on rookie contracts who have proven themselves to be franchise cornerstones. The ones who can't meet that bar at least give the team a clearer picture as to what its needs are going into next offseason.
Mayo explained this week that, with the time they have left, he and his staff will be providing their young players an opportunity to stake their claims to long-term roles moving into 2025 and beyond.
"Look, I would say, not to get too specific, but I will," Mayo said. "You need a guy like Layden Robinson to show what he can do. We need a guy like Cole Strange before the end of the season to see what he can do. You can use Caedan [Wallace] in that same bucket. We need to see what the receivers can do and what they're going to look like going forward.
"That's the hard part for me. Look, you want to win right now, but at the same time, I think it would be a disservice to go to the end of the season and not know exactly what we have."
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It's not a tryout, per se. But it is an evaluation period. And someone like Robinson, who could fill a void after the team released Michael Jordan earlier this week, could significantly impact how the Patriots allocate their team-building resources come March. (Jordan was re-signed to the practice squad and elevated to be in uniform for Sunday's game.)
If, for example, either Robinson or Strange show they can be dependable starting options before the end of the year? That's one more position handled, one fewer spot to urgently address in free agency or the draft.
As much as the Patriots can make leaps from a culture-building standpoint against the Colts by playing the smart-tough-dependable brand of football they're hoping to embody consistently, it may be easier to gauge exactly what they're getting from young players who haven't yet solidified what they'll be.
Aside from judging those contributions, here are the other elements of this Week 13 matchup at Gillette Stadium you should be keeping tabs on...
Matchup that will determine the outcome
Drake Maye vs. Colts DC Gus Bradley
The days of the Patriots rolling over a predictable Gus Bradley defense -- as they did when Bradley ran the Chargers defense during the 2018 Divisional Round -- have long since passed.
As well as Maye has played since taking over as the starter in Week 6, he has turned the ball over 11 times in that span, and he's going against the eighth-best team in the NFL at creating takeaways (17). And what makes this a particularly intriguing matchup is that even though Bradley's three-deep defense is still relatively predictable, those types of coverages have given Maye some issues in his short run as starter.
The Patriots rookie has thrown four of his seven picks against Cover 3 this year. per NextGen Stats. And Bradley calls for Cover 3 (45.3 percent of opposing dropbacks) more than any other defensive coordinator in the NFL.
Previous iterations of the Patriots used to shred Cover 3 with passes up the seams, their "Peel" (post-wheel) concept, and short catch-and-run throws to running backs. Maye and offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt could opt for a plan that incorporates some of those same ideas, as Indianapolis has allowed the most completions (51) and the third-most yards (333) against screens this year.
The Colts have also allowed the ninth-highest EPA per play to seam routes this season, which could bode well for tight ends Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper.
Matchup that will surprise you
Patriots pass rush vs. Colts offensive line
Wonder why the Patriots attempt to blitz as often as they do, calling for extra rushers even when they understand it will leave them shorthanded in a secondary that often needs help?
Those blitz calls, risky as they are, are sometimes the only way they can get any heat on opposing quarterbacks. According to NGS, they pressure passers 43 percent of the time when blitzing. When they don't? That number drops to just 23.2 percent. No team in the NFL has a great blitz-to-non-blitz differential when it comes to pressure rate.
The Patriots have the fifth-highest blitz rate in the league, and odds are they'll continue to dial up extra rushers this week against Anthony Richardson, who owns the NFL's fourth-worst quarterback rating when pressured this year (55.4). Indy has allowed 53 percent of its blitzed dropbacks to lead to pressure, and the outlook for its pass-protection unit is looking tougher by the day.
The Colts are already without starting center Ryan Kelly and right guard Will Fries. Right tackle Braden Smith (personal/non-injury) has been ruled out, as has backup center Tanor Bertolini. Left tackle Bernhard Raimann (knee) could be limited, and former Patriots interior lineman Atonio Mafi has been signed from the Colts practice squad to be potentially pressed into action.
Now would be as good a time as any for Keion White, Christian Barmore, Deatrich Wise and Anfernee Jennings -- along with the help of some blitzers -- to live in an opposing backfield. The Patriots racked up nine sacks against a banged-up Bears line three weeks ago. But in five games around that one -- three before, two after -- they have just four sacks combined.
Matchup that will take years off your life
Colts DT DeForest Buckner vs. Patriots pass protection
One of the benefits of playing as much zone as the Colts do? They don't allow for very many quarterback scrambles, because their second- and third-level defenders tend to have their eyes in the backfield. They are 24th in quarterback scramble attempts (20) and yards (129) allowed this season. Not great news for the Patriots, whose 22-year-old quarterback averages 9.6 yards per scramble attempt, which is fourth-most in the NFL among qualifiers.
The problem for the Patriots goes beyond Indy's apparent ability to keep Maye inside the pocket, though. When he's in there, he'll have to avoid one of the most dangerous interior rushers in the NFL.
DeForest Buckner is second among qualifying defensive tackles in pressure rate and quick pressure rate (under 2.5 seconds after the snap). Only Milton Williams of the Eagles has a better sack rate and pass-rush win rate on "true" pass sets (excluding screens, play-actions or roll-outs) among interior pass-rushers this season.
The Colts like to send extra rushers on third down, but if handling those blitzers means Buckner has to be blocked one-on-one -- especially for an offensive line that could be going through another shakeup this week -- that's a matchup that could ruin the game for the Patriots.
