We have an odd relationship with winter forecasts. On one hand, we know that it’s impossible to pin down three months of howling winds, snowstorms, freakish warmups, bitter blasts and an early/late arrival to spring, but we still want something — anything — that could give us a hint at what’s to come.
Perhaps it gives us something to think about over this seemingly endless cold season. Or maybe we’re just curious whether the science has advanced enough to get it right (for once).
So the meteorologists — who may or may not be vulnerable to wishcasting — display their wares on social/broadcast media for all the world to scrutinize, believe, and belittle. It’s a rite of seasonal norms as much as the annual gift of the Common Christmas tree or that yearly “shock” we experience with the shorter day length. It gets so dark so early this time of year.
To give a voice to all our team forecasts, I’ve combined some thoughts below about what could unfold this winter. Our consensus will follow, and that will be our “ride or die” winter forecast for the 2024-25 season.
So, without further ado.
Pamela Gardner leads the way with a showdown between what we expect for winter snowfall versus what we’ve seen over the past decade. She even tipped her hat to the woolly bear caterpillar, whose insight into the forecast varies with color of its stripes.
La Nina seems to be a big player in the winter forecast. Tevin Wooten says this will favor storm tracks across the northern part of the U.S. Depending on how cold (or warm) air is in place, we’ll either get snow or rain. He also underscores climate change’s indelible hold on warmer winters in general. On average, we can expect 11 fewer nights below 32 degrees from December to February.
Dominic Brown concurs on La Nina, with a few more specifics. He states that this will lead to a wide variation in weather across all of New England. (I’m feeling "wild winter" vibes here.)
Sydney Welch took a different approach and surveyed the stats over the last several snow-starved winters. If we are to mount a comeback, she says, we really need to get out of our flake-less funk — a tall order in the face of recent trends, which have included deluges in midwinter.
Finally, our colleague at Telemundo Abimael Castro feels that the trend is your friend. We haven’t had a lot of snow recently, so don’t expect things to change much this year. There’s solid truth to the idea of “snow droughts” in New England.
This consensus is summed up with one sentiment. We aren’t bullish on cold OR snow this year. It goes without saying that climate change’s warm tilt flies in the face of consistent cold for three straight months anyway. And with wild variations in precipitation (torrents of rain last winter and the drought this fall), we can’t rely on any type of persistent precipitation.
That said, we live in harried times with patterns. If we get stuck in a snowy one, we’re destined to ride it out until something switches it up. And as Pamela touched upon, that could have epically snowy consequences, if it’s cold enough. (I’m looking at you, winter of 2014-15.)
Obviously, we’re careful NOT to give an exact snowfall number for Boston and Worcester. Climatology tells us that we can see 49.2 inches and 72.9 inches, respectively in a normal winter. Our consensus is below those values.
The table is set and the pieces are moving. Let the games begin.
What the last 10 years (and a caterpillar) tell us about snow in Boston
Each season in New England, we can have many variations of winter weather. When coming up with a forecast, we start with a baseline of climate norms and history. For example, Boston averages 49.2 inches of snow a season.
And in the last 10 years we have had some wacky weather patterns.
Last winter, Boston had only 9.8 inches of snow, which was the third-least snowiest on record. First place was in 1936-37, with 9 inches, and in 2011-2012 we had 9.3 inches.
Another observation is that seven out of the last 10 seasons, we were below the norm on snowfall. But also in the last 10 years, one year gave us the snowiest winter on record, when Boston received 110.6 inches back in 2014-2015. The piles of snow were higher than cars and people and stuck around through the spring. The infamous Boston snow pile in Seaport didn’t melt until July! (Though it had so much trash and dirt in it, many debate the actual melting date.)
Another unique thing we tune into is weather lore. And different bugs can sometimes prognosticate our season to follow.
Unlike the groundhog for springtime, the woolly worm caterpillar emerges in the fall across the Northeast. Some believe the fuzzy bug's stripe color can hint at the type of winter we will have.
More brown means a milder winter, while more black means a harsher winter. This year, we have seen a couple of these woolly bears with mostly brown, which would mean a milder winter!
The last couple of years, we saw mostly brown woolly bear caterpillars, and the winters that followed were indeed milder than normal, along with less snowfall than average. –Pamela Gardner
Boston's undeniable winter temperature trend
Tevin Wooten breaks down the numbers on how much warmer winters have become since the 1970s:
La Niña and Boston's 2024-25 winter
Let’s break out the gloves, dust off the snow brushes and talk about some snow! Or will we see snow this season?
Well, forecasters say La Niña could play a role in our winter here in New England.
The global weather pattern all starts with interactions from the ocean’s surface and the atmosphere over the Pacific that can cause quite a variety of weather here in the U.S.
Well, La Niña is predicted to emerge this year, but forecasters say it will likely be short-lived and weak — weak meaning there may variability in winter impacts from what we typically expect.
For now, for us in Boston, La Niña will likely give us warmer than normal temperatures through February.
As for precipitation, we’ll have an equal chance of having above normal rainfall and below normal rainfall.
So, my thoughts on this winter? I think it’s going to be a mild one for us here in Boston. But I think we’ll also see some snow with some cold spells from time to time. Overall, the snow amounts will likely be a little bit on the lower side as we move through the winter months. –Dominic Brown
A closer look at the last 5 years' winters
Sydney Welch shows how warmer winters have been more common.
So how much snow will we get in Boston, Worcester, etc.?
Abimael Castro thinks Boston won't see as much snow as some other major New England cities. Here's his forecast for each one.
