As much as we’d like to say that this weekend's near record-breaking temperatures will stick around New England for a while, highs in the 50s and 60s will be fleeting.
Beyond the weekend, we’ll dive back into a mid-February spell of cooler air, and in true New England fashion, a new winter storm is brewing on the other side of the weekend. This becomes problematic, in part, because the warmup won't do us any favors to get cold air in quickly.
What's working against a snowy Monday-Tuesday
While much of next week will be spent with freezing temperatures, setting the stage before the storm on Monday evening, temperatures are quite mild in the mid-40s. While not record breaking, that’s still above climatological norm for Feb. 12 -- 10 degrees hotter than usual.
With an onshore wind, air over the water will also work to bring in milder temperatures, which would cut down on accumulating snow. The storm would arrive Monday night into Tuesday morning, so that bodes well for a quick drop in temperatures, allowing little room for recovery.
Storm's track could bring snow back
The models have been consistently inconsistent with where the storm moves. The European ensemble track favors southern New England. This solution would likely bring the heaviest snow along the coast and taper things off farther north through the lower Merrimack River Valley. Still an option, the GFS is only a matter of miles south, and over the Atlantic. An approach here would virtually limit snowfall to only the Islands and Cape Cod.
Most guidance shows the area of low pressure, "the storm," continuing to strengthen as it phases with upper level energy. When that phasing happens is key maximize available energy. This, too, would mean a much more robust snow for southern new England, to areas of the Long Island Sound.
The odds are in favor of 2-4 inches of snow through Connecticut, Rhode Island, Boston, the South Shore, and south across Cape Cod, with isolated pockets up to 6 inches.
We know this winter has been lousy for snow, and we're running out of time to make up lost ground. Not all hope is lost, though. February is our snowiest month, but April is when we usually sunset meaningful snowfall chances. But it's New England, and we always keep our snow shovels and plows handy.
